Notes

[1] The rich countries are here defined as OECD members except for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Turkey. In 2004 their per capita consumption was 5.49 toe. For the poorer countries per capita consumption was 1.13 toe. See IEA 2006a: 48 57.

[2] The term “feudalism” is used here loosely to mean a society where most people engage in small-scale agriculture and are ruled by lords who live off them.

[3] FAO 2002: 15

[4] WHO 2002: 53

[5] WHO 2002: 54

[6] WHO 2002: 54-55

[7] WHO 2002: 86

[8] Smil 2000: xix.

[9] Haupt and Kane 2004:50.

[10] United Nations figures. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/LR_EXEC_SUM_TABLES_FIGS.xls

[11] It should not be too off the mark to assume that the 15 per cent who live in developed countries are consuming 30 per cent of grain (i.e., a per capita share twice that of developing countries). This would mean that of the 1.8 billion tonnes of grain produced every year, 1.26 billion tonnes goes to developing countries. If the population in these countries increases by 65 per cent, doubling their per capita consumption would mean increasing their total consumption 3.3 fold. Multiplying 1.26 billion by 3.3 gives 4.158 billion. Adding the 540 million tonnes consumed by developed countries gives a total of around 4.7 billion which is 2.6 times the original figure of 1.8 billion. If the population in developing countries increases by 50 per cent, grain production would need to increase 2.4 fold.

[12] http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/Update31_data_WorldProdCons.htm. Grain production is currently just over 1.8 billion tons.

[13] Bruinsma (ed.) 2003: 315 – 316.

[14] Bruinsma (ed.) 2003: 315

[15] Alexandratos 1988: 383-4, FAO 2002: 50.

[16] Reynolds et al. (eds.). 2001: 3, 25, 160..

[17] FAO. 2004.

[18] People’s Daily Online 2005. “Hybrid wheat breeds new hope” April 4.

[19] People’s Daily 2003. “China Breeds World’s First Hybrid Soybean,” 17 January 2003

[20] For wheat see: CIMMYT. 2000a For rice see: http://www.futureharvest.org/growth/generalrice.bkgnd.shtml; Mitchell 1997: 60, Conway 1997: 142

[21] http://www.fumento.com/fertilizer.html

[22] Pew Initiative on Food and Biotechnology 2001: 32.

[23] Guin undated, p9 and Avery 1995: 217

[24] Lin 1995

[25] Pew Initiative on Food and Biotechnology 2001: 24.

[26] Pew Initiative on Food and Biotechnology 2001: 22.

[27] http://news.uns.purdue.edu/html4ever/030820.Goodwin.resist.html

[28] The discovery of the gene that protects potatoes against late blight and its cloning by scientists at the University of Wisconsin-Madison was reported July 14 2003 in online editions of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).

[29] Avery 1995: 217

[30] The Economist, August 21, 2003. Rich Pickings: A New Research Centre in Uganda will Study the Banana; and Saving the World’s Bananas http://www.whybiotech.com/index.asp?id=4054

[31] Saving the World’s Bananas http://www.whybiotech.com/index.asp?id=4054

[32] “Hairpin RNA’ beats plant viruses” CSIRO Media Release – Ref 2001/150 – Jun 20 , 2001

http://www.csiro.au/files/mediaRelease/mr2001/prhairpinrna.htm

[33] James 2003, p. 153.

[34] This research by CSIRO was terminated because of allergy concerns.

[35] Avery 1995: 218.

[36] CIMMYT 2000b.

[37] CIMMYT 2001b: 10.

[38] Pew Initiative 2001: 24, 26

[39] Pew Initiative 2001: 27

[40] Pew Initiative 2001: 27

[41] http://www.cimmyt.org/english/wps/news/2006/feb/
farmers_striga.htm

[42] Fox 2003.

[43] Fighting Against Resistance – Christof Fellmann, Checkbiotech.org, January 24, 2003.

[44] Phadnis, Chitra. “Monsanto begins gene pyramiding in Bt cotton seeds.” Financial Times May 10, 2002

[45] CIMMYT 2000b

[46] CIMMYT 2002: 9.

[47] CIMMYT 2002:9.

[48] Scientists work on drought-proof rice. Australian Associated Press April 29, 2003.

[49] CIMMYT 2001b: 14.

[50] Genetically Modified Plants Can Survive Drought, Find Scientists – Cordis News Service, August 12, 2003-08-12.

[51] Kleckner 2003

[52] Abebe et al. 2003.

[53] Reynolds et al. 2001: 3.

[54] FAO 2003: 27.

[55] CIMMYT 2001b: 13.

[56] FAO 2003: 27-28.

[57] Reynolds et al. 2001: 142

[58] CIMMYT 2000b.

[59] CIMMYT 2001a: 11.

[60] Reynolds et al. 2001: 124.

[61] Reynolds et al. 2001: 26.

[62] CIMMYT 2001b: 7.

[63] Science Daily 2002 “Fried Green Tomatoes: Transgenic Tomatoes Reveal Critical Component Of Thermotolerance” 20 June. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/06/020618073350.htm

[64] Fumento 2003: 234.

[65] Fumento 2003: 234

[66] Fumento 2003: 235.

[67] Reynolds et al. 2001: 108.

[68] Bruinsma 2003: 318.

[69] Rana Munns, CSIRO Plant Industry and Ray Hare at Enterprise Grains Australia.

[70] “Firm Creating Salt-Resistant Crops”, The Arizona Republic by Kerry Fehr-Snyder July 15, 2002; Plant Scientist Eduardo Blumwald to Receive Humboldt Award. University of California, UC Davis News and Information July 7, 2003

[71] “China cultivates salt-resistant cloned tomatoes, rice, soya, poplars.” Asia Intelligence Wire September 15, 2002.

[72] Fumento 2003: 237.

[73] Reynolds et al. 2001: 219.

[74] Reynolds et al. 2001: 221.

[75] Reynolds et al. 2001: 219.

[76] Reynolds et al. 2001: 219.

[77] Reynolds et al. 2001: 235.

[78] Reynolds et al. 2001: 227.

[79] Fumento 2003: 240.

[80] CIMMYT 2000b: 16.

[81] Reynolds et al. 2001: 176

[82] Reynolds et al. 2001: 176

[83] CIMMYT 2001b: 16.

[84] CIMMYT 2001b: 16.

[85] Avery 1999.

[86] Bruinsma 2003: 318.

[87] Pew Initiative: 31.

[88] The Politics of Biotech Foods AEI Newsletter American Enterprise Institute July 25, 2003.

[89] Fumento 2003: 245.

[90] http://www.cimmyt.org/Research/Maize/about/
01011997brochure.htm

[91] Wood et al. 2000: 21.

[92] Dyson 1996: 193.

[93] Smil 2000: 14.

[94] FAO 2002: 58.

[95] FAO 2002: 60.

[96] Smil 2000: 164-169.

[97] Smil 0201: 306.

[98] Conway 1997: 156.

[99] Smil 2000: 164-169.

[100] Avery 1995: 217.

[101] Smil 2000: 164-169.

[102] Smil 2000: 164-169.

[103] “Blocking Burping Beasts” http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/stories/s310139.htm

[104] Smil 2000: 164-169.

[105] Pew Initiative 2001: 36.

[106] “Sheep thriving in GMO feeding trial” CSIRO Media Release, Wednesday, 22 November 2000 Ref 2000/310

[107] Conway 1997: 153-158.

[108] Alexandratos 1988: 203.

[109] Guin undated

[110] FAO 2002: 61.

[111] FAO 2002: 62.

[112] Conway 1997: 151.

[113] Conway 1997:.153-158

[114] Pew Initiative 2001: 74.

[115] Pew Initiative 2001: 74.

[116] Smil 2000: xx.

[117] Smil 2000: 162.

[118] http://www.toxicology.org/ai/gm/GM_Food.doc

[119] “Are Foods Developed from Recombinant DNA Safe to Eat?” http://ccr.ucdavis.edu/biot/html/safe/index.shtml

[120] Rowett Research Institute: http://www.rri.sari.ac.uk

[121] Fumento 2003: 281-282.

[122] http://www.agbioworld.org/biotech-info/articles/agbio-articles/critical.html

[123] Pew Iniative 2001: 34.

[124] http://www.csiro.au/csiro/content/standard/ps3u,,.html

[125] Pew Initiative 2001: 40.

[126] GM Potato ‘Could Improve Child Health’ BBC News, January 1, 2003

[127] GM Potato ‘Could Improve Child Health’ BBC News, January 1, 2003; Pew Initiative p. 34

[128] Pew Iniative 2001: 34.

[129] “Scientists Create Tomato to Reduce Cancer Risk” Yorkshire Post June 24, 2002.

[130] Fumento 2003: 251.

[131] Fumento 2003: 251.

[132] Health Food, Biotech style- Robert Wager, The Globe and Mail, Oct. 17, 2003

[133] Health Food, Biotech style- Robert Wager, The Globe and Mail, Oct. 17, 2003

[134] Fumento 2003: 194-195.

[135] Fumento 2003: 194-195.

[136] Fumento 2003: 197.

[137] Fumento 2003: 197.

[138] Fumento 2003: 45.

[139] “GM Plants to Fight Allergies” Sydney Morning Herald, August 28, 2003.

[140] Fumento 2003: 36-37.

[141] “GE Grass Good News for Hayfever Sufferers” Royal Society News, June 19, 2003

[142] http://pewagbiotech.org/research/harvest/

[143] Fumento 2003: 15-16.

[144] http://pewagbiotech.org/research/harvest/

[145] Land-mine Detecting Plants Created 10 October 2005. Gizmag Emerging Technology Magazine.

[146] Biotechnology and Genetic Diversity http://www.whybiotech.com/index.asp?id=4009

[147] Biotechnology and Genetic Diversity http://www.whybiotech.com/index.asp?id=4009; “Study Says Transgene Unlikely to Spread among Wild Sunflowers.” Life Science Weekly June 23, 2003

[148] AgBioview August 9 2005: http://www.agbioworld.org/newsletter_wm/index.php?caseid=archive&newsid=2398

[149] For a discussion of the various studies done on the issue see Gatehouse et al. 2002.

[150] http://www.whybiotech.com/index.asp?id=1819

[151] Martina McGloughlin Ten Reasons Why Biotechnology Will Be Important To The Developing World AgBioForum Magazine Volume 2 Number 3 & 4 Article 4 http://www.agbioforum.org/v2n34/v2n34a04-mcgloughlin.htm

[152] http://www.whybiotech.com/index.asp?id=1819

[153] Fumento 2003: 212-213.

[154] Fumento 2003: 266.

[155] “GM Cotton Crops Halve Pesticide Use” Sydney Morning Herald August 1, 2003

[156] Fumento 2003: 212-213.

[157] Fumento 2003: 221-223.

[158] Conservation tillage refers to any planting system that leaves more than 30 per cent of the soil covered with crop residue to prevent erosion, compared to less than 15 per cent with conventional tillage. Biotech crops help farmers control weeds without tillage, thus making conservation tillage systems practical. Globally, ‘no till’ conservation practices have increased by 35 per cent since biotech crops came on the market in 1996. In fact, almost all no-till acreage occurred where biotech crops have been employed. By using conservation tillage, farmers have been able to cut their production costs by 10 per cent or more. Importantly, the crop mulch in conservation tillage systems shades the ground and slows evaporation. The improved soil structure resulting from less ploughing actually increases the movement of water into the soil following rain or irrigation and holds it there, which means less irrigation is necessary. Also, less ploughing means less money spent on fuel.

[159] http://www.agbioworld.org/newsletter_wm/index.php?caseid=archive
&newsid=1751

[160] Above note and http://www.whybiotech.com/index.asp?id=1813

[161] Fumento 2003: 313-314.

[162] Poison-Craving Plant, Germ Designed to Suck up Pollutants ‘Bio-Remediation’ Shows Promise. USA Today. October 8, 2002

[163] “Superbug to the Rescue!” – Katharine Mieszkowski, Salon.com, August 28, 2003.

[164] Fumento 2003: 306-307.

[165] Fumento 2003: 316.

[166] Bruinsma 2003: 127.

[167] Cited in Table 3.2 of Crosson and Anderson 1992.

[168] Borlaug 1997.

[169] UNPD 2002: 1.

[170] FAO 2002: 41.

[171] Alexandratos 1988: 16-17.

[172] Cited in Rosegrant and Hazell 2000: 292.

[173] Scherr 1999: 16.

[174] Scherr 1999: 16.

[175] “Will Sprawl Gobble Up America’s Land? Federal Data Reveal Development’s Trivial Impact” Ronald D. Utt. Backgrounder #1556 http://www.heritage.org/Research/SmartGrowth/BG1556.cfm.

[176] Vesterby and Krupa 1997.

[177] http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/LandUse/urbanchapter.htm

[178] http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/LandUse/urbanchapter.htm

[179] Crosson and Anderson 2002: 7.

[180] FAO 2002: 41.

[181] Scherr 1999: 16.

[182] Crosson and Anderson 2002: 7.

[183] Because of their structure and composition tropical soils tend to have a lower inherent fertility and be more susceptible to degradation pressures and they are also subject to more degradation pressure from the climate – higher temperatures, greater high and low extremes of rain fall, and greater rain fall intensity typical of the tropics. leaching of nutrients, faster decomposition of organic matter.

[184] Dyson 1996: 145.

[185] FAO 2002: 43.

[186] Crosson and Anderson 1992: 34.

[187] Pingali and Rosegrant 2001: 385, 386.

[188] Sanmuganathan 2000: iv.

[189] Smil 2000: 76-77.

[190] Con 1997: 253.

[191] Gruin et al. 2000

[192] Gruin et al. 2000

[193] World Bank 2003: 12.

[194] Singh 2001.

[195] Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000: xx. We can assume that all pumped ground water is for human use.

[196] FAO 2002: 4.

[197] World Commission on Dams 2000.

[198] UNESCO 1999 table 8 and World Bank 2003: 12.

[199] Sanmuganathan 2000: 43, 70.

[200] World Water Vision Commission (undated): 13.

[201] World Water Vision Commission (undated): 13.

[202] Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000: table 1, xxii.

[203] Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000: 40.

[204] Smil 2000: 127-130.

[205] Gleick et al. 2002: 20.

[206] Smil 2000: 126-127, 132.

[207] Gleick et al. 2002: 20.

[208] FAO 2003: 49.

[209] Smil 2000: 132.

[210] Smil 2000: 132.

[211] WRI 1994.

[212] Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000: 9.

[213] California Energy Commission, undated.

[214] Gleick et al. 2002: 4.

[215] Fumento 2003: 302; See http://www.qinetiq.com/

[216] ‘Advanced Water Treatment Technologies May Bring Purified Water to San Diego’, http://www.gewater.com/library/tp/922_Advanced_Water.jsp

[217] Sanmuganathan 2000: 91.

[218] Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment and Security 1999: 10.

[219] Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000: 41.

[220] Water Science and Technology Board 2004:12.

[221] Semiat 2000: 54.

[222] Desalination and Water Purification Technology Roadmap 2003: 52.

[223] http://www.membranes.com/; http://www.water-technology.net/projects/tampa/; Beck 2002: 1.

[224] San Diego County Water Authority http://www.sdcwa.org/manage/sources-desalination.phtml

[225] Buros 2000: 5.

[226] Beck 2002: 6f.

[227] Beck 2002: 10.

[228] Glueckstern (undated)

[229] Beck 2002: 10.

[230] Semiat 2000: 63.

[231] http://www.aquasonics.com/index.html

[232] PRRC Biannual Newsletter Volume 16, No. 1/Winter 2000.2001, Petroleum Recovery Research Center http://baervan.nmt.edu/

[233] Desalination and Water Purification Technology Roadmap 2003: 56.

[234] Risbud 2006.

[235] Cosgrove and Rijsberman 2000: xxii.

[236] 2500 km3 of water weighs about 2.5 trillion tonnes.

[237] “North American Company Patents Ice Berg Towing” The World Today – 22-11-01.

[238] Rosegrant and Hazell 2000: 312.

[239] Wood et al. 2000: 69.

[240] Smale, M et al. 2001:.6.

[241] CGIAR and Global Environment Facility 2002: 6.

[242] Rosegrant and Hazell 2000: 312.

[243] Smil 2000: 171-2.

[244] Conway 1997: 276.

[245] Vannuccini 2003.

[246] Alexandratos 1988: 247.

[247] Smil 2000: 12.

[248] Projection of World Fishery Production in 2010 http://www.fao.org/fi/highligh/2010.asp

[249] http://usinfo.state.gov/journals/ites/0103/ijee/trends.htm

[250] Wood et al. 2000: Introduction/3.

[251] Smil 2000: 175.

[252] “Fish Farming the Promise of a Blue Revolution” The Economist Aug 7th 2003.

[253] Genetic Modification of Aquatic Organisms for Aquaculture, SeaWeb Aquaculture Resources http://www.seaweb.org/resources/aquaculturecenter/documents/Aquaculture.GMOD.pdf

[254] “Fish Farming the Promise of a Blue Revolution” The Economist Aug 7th 2003.

[255] Smil 2000: 161.

[256] “The Blue Revolution a New Way to Feed the World.” The Economist Aug 7th 2003

[257] “Fish Farming the Promise of a Blue Revolution” The Economist Aug 7th 2003.

[258] Smil 2000: 50.

[259] USGS 2006: 125.

[260] USGS 2006: 125.

[261] Lomborg 2001: 144.

[262] USGS 2006: 125.

[263] USGS 2006: 165.

[264] USGS 2006: 165.

[265] USGS 2006: 129.

[266] USGS 2006: 129.

[267] Smil 2000: 50.

[268] Avery 1995: 230.

[269] Smil 2000: 50.

[270] Avery 1995: 170.

[271] Avery 1995: 171-2.

[272] Avery 1995: 171-2.

[273] Avery 1995: 30.

[274] CIA Fact Book, 2004 estimate.

[275] Average income here refers to GDP per capita not income per worker. The figures used are for 2004 and come from the on-line CIA Fact Book.

[276] “The Great Divide,” The Economist, Mar 3rd 2005

[277] World Bank, 2006: 8.

[278] World Bank 2006: 8.

[279] World Bank 2006: 8.

[280] World Bank 2006: 8; The Groningen Growth and Development Centre: http://www.ggdc.net/dseries/Data/TED05II .xls

[281] The Groningen Growth and Development Centre: http://www.ggdc.net/dseries/Data/TED05II .xls

[282] IEA. 2006a: 48. Primary energy is the energy content of a resource at the point of extraction. In the case of coal, geothermal and uranium it is their thermal energy prior to their being converted into electricity, and oil prior to refining. For wind, solar panels and hydropower it is the electricity produced.

[283] The rich countries are here defined as OECD members except for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Turkey. In 2004 their per capita consumption was 5.49 toe. For the poorer countries per capita consumption was 1.13 toe. See IEA 2006a: 48‑57.

[284] EIA 2006: 1.

[285] EIA 2005: 1.

[286] The US per capita level is 7.91 toe. See IEA 2006a: 57.

[287] EIA 2006: 83.

[288] IEA 2006a: 6.

[289] IEA. 2006a: 6.

[290] US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000 – Description and Results, US Geological Survey Digital Data Series 60.

[291] In 2005 we consumed 29.6 billion barrels. See BP 2006: 8.

[292] Key advocates of this view are Colin J. Campbell, Kenneth S. Deffeyes and Jean Laherrere.

[293] One of the more renowned optimists is Michael Lynch of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc.

[294] The term ‘oil’ has, to date, been synonymous with conventional crude oil, a liquid mixture of hydrocarbons that percolates through porous strata and flows readily up drilled boreholes.

[295] Alberta Chamber of Resources 2004: 41.

[296] Alberta Chamber of Resources 2004: chapter 4; Athabasca Oil Sands Web Page: http://collections.ic.gc.ca/oil/index1.htm

[297] National Energy Board 2004: 4.

[298] Natural Resources Canada: http://www2.nrcan.gc.ca/es/ener2000/online/html/chap3a_e.cfm

[299] US Geological Survey, “Heavy Oil and Natural Bitumen – Strategic Petroleum Resources”, USGS Fact Sheet FS-070-03, August 2003.

[300] Email communications with Alberta oil sands executive.

[301] Bunger et al. 2004.

[302] A figure of 2.6 trillion bbls. is given by Bunger et al.2004. A figure of 3.5 trillion bbls. is given by Williams 2003.

[303] Williams 2003:20

[304] Bunger et al. 2004.

[305] IEA 2001a: 52.

[306] Jalonick, Mary Clare, “Bill contains incentives for new coal-conversion plant”, Associated Press, 30 September 2005.

[307] Iran Daily, “Indians Look to Make Oil From Coal”, July 30 2005. http://www.iran-daily.com/1384/2336/html/energy.htm

[308] IEA 2006a: 6, 24.

[309] IEA 2003: table 6.8.

[310] Goldemberg 2000: 148.

[311] IEA 2003.

[312] Goldemberg 2000: 148.citing BGR (Bundesanstalt fur Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe [Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources] 1998. Reserven, Ressourcen und Verfugbarkeit von Energierohstoffen 1998 [Availability of Energy Reserves and Resources 1998]. Hanover, Germany.

[313] IEA 2006a: 6

[314] EIA: http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iea2003/table81.xls

[315] US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000 – Description and Results, US Geological Survey Digital Data Series 60; International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2001, p. 142.

[316] USGS, Coal-Bed Methane: Potential and Concerns, USGS Fact Sheet FS-123-00 October 2000.

[317] USGS, Coal-Bed Methane: Potential and Concerns, USGS Fact Sheet FS-123-00 October 2000.

[318] US Geological Survey Energy Resource Surveys Program, Coalbed Methane – An Untapped Energy Resource and an Environmental Concern, USGS Fact Sheet FS-019-97.

[319] Kuuskraa and Bank 2003: 34.

[320] Kuuskraa and Bank 2003: 34.

[321] Bundesministerium fur Wirtschaft und Arbeit 2002. Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2002, short version, page 9.

[322] World Energy Council, New Technology for Tight Gas Sands, http://www.worldenergy.org/wec-geis/publications/default/tech_papers/17th_congress/2_1_16.asp

[323] Goldemberg 2000: 147.

[324] United States Geological Survey, Natural Gas Hydrates – vast resource, uncertain future, USGS Fact Sheet FS–021–01, March 2001

[325] United States Geological Survey, Natural Gas Hydrates – vast resource, uncertain future, USGS Fact Sheet FS-021-01, March 2001.

[326] IEA 2001a: 397.

[327] United States Geological Survey, Natural Gas Hydrates – vast resource, uncertain future, USGS Fact Sheet FS-021-01, March 2001.

[328] US Congress, Report of the Methane Hydrate Advisory Committee on Methane Hydrate Issues and Opportunities Including Assessment of Uncertainty of the Impact of Methane Hydrate on Global Climate Change, December 2002, p.8.

[329] Coal contains about 80 percent more carbon per unit of energy than gas does, and oil contains about 40 percent more. Congressional Budget Office 2003: 11.

[330] Mahlman 2001: 10.

[331] Mahlman 1998: 88; Mahlman 2001: 8.

[332] Lomborg 2001: 269.

[333] Lewis jr 2004: 6.

[334] De Freitas 2002: 304-6

[335] De Freitas 2002: 305; Essex and McKitrick 2002: 139.

[336] Lewis Jr 2004: 7.

[337] De Freitas 2002: 306.

[338] http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2005/03/03/hockey-stick-1998-2005-rip/

[339] Soon et al. 2001: 11.

[340] Michaels 2004: 232.

[341] Michaels 2004: 232

[342] Reuters October 26, 2002

[343] Doran et al. 2002.

[344] Virtual Climate Alert May 21, 2002 Vol. 3, No. 16

[345] Joughin and Tulaczyk, 2000.

[346] Pittock 2003: 35; Mahlman 2001: 17.

[347] Cited by Michaels 2004: 55.

[348] Cited by Michaels 2004: 60.

[349] Michaels 2004: 60.

[350] Cited by Michaels 2004: 58-59.

[351] Chylek 2004: 201.

[352] Michaels 2004: 6.

[353] Lewis Jr 2004: 22.

[354] Michaels 2004: 37-8.

[355] Michaels 2004: 38-9.

[356] http://www.the-south-asian.com/Aug2004/Gangotri_glacier.htm

[357] ‘The Climate Himalayan Snow Job” March 17, 2005 http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2005/03/17/the-great-himalayan-snow-job/

[358] Michaels 2004: 94.

[359] Sherwood and Idso 2004: 44, 47.

[360] http://www.aosb.org/PDF/OPP_final_report_to_AOSB.pdf

[361] Michaels 2004: 42-43.

[362] Michaels 2004: 33.

[363] IPCC. 2001: 33.

[364] Lewis Jr 2004: 9.

[365] Michaels 2004: 118.

[366] Michaels 2004: 172-3)

[367] Romanovsky et al. 2002.

[368] Kasper and Allard 2001.

[369] http://www.co2science.org/scripts/CO2ScienceB2C/subject/c/
carbongrasslands.jsp

[370] Correspondence Nature 428, 601 (April 8, 2004)

[371] Richard Seager of Columbia’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and David Battisti of the University of Washington. See Tobin, Mary. Columbia Research Dispels 150 Years of Thinking – Mild Winter Conditions in Europe Are Not Due to the Gulf Stream, Columbia News, Feb 05, 2003. http://www.columbia.edu/cu/news/03/02/richardSeager_research.html

[372] Stern 2006: 170.

[373] At the time of writing, methane levels in the atmosphere appear to have stabilized.

[374] Stern 2006: 170. Stern gives a figure of 42 gigatonnes of CO which equals 11.45 GtC. 57 per cent of that figure gives 6.53 GtC.

[375] Lackner et al. undated: 4.

[376] Loftus 2003: B.5.A.

[377] Australian Coal Association 2004: 29.

[378] Lackner et al. undated: 6; American Energy Independence Web Site, “CO2 Recycling Capturing Carbon Dioxide Directly from the Air” http://www.americanenergyindependence.com/recycleco2.html

[379] Lackner et al. 1999; American Energy Independence Web Site, “CO2 Recycling Capturing Carbon Dioxide Directly from the Air” http://www.americanenergyindependence.com/recycleco2.html

[380] Project Facts, US Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, “Recovery & sequestration of co2 from stationary combustion systems by photosynthesis of microalgae”, 11/2003.

[381] Goldemberg 2000: 289.

[382] Goldemberg 2000: 289.

[383] Goldemberg 2000: 289.

[384] Yegulalp and Lackner.2004.

[385] Lackner 2003; Winters 2003.

[386] Herzog et al. undated: 4.

[387] Goldemberg 2000: 276.

[388] World Energy Council 1994: 77.

[389] Rushing 2001.

[390] It is called the Australian Solar Tower Project and at the time of writing was at the final feasibility stage.

[391] The technology is being developed and tested by Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the US http://www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/solar_lighting.html

[392] In 2004 world electricity production was 15,985 TWh and per capita consumption in rich countries averaged 9,710 KWh. See IEA 2006a: 48. The rich countries are here defined as OECD members except for the Czech Republic, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, the Slovak Republic and Turkey.

[393] http://energy.saving.nu/solarenergy/energy.shtml.

[394] KPMG, Bureau voor Economische Argumentatie, 1999.

[395] IEA 2006a: 55. There are a billion kWh to a TWh.

[396] http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/

[397] http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/

[398] The Dutch figure is 6823 kWh. See IEA 2006a: 55.

[399] 10 per cent of 1505 multiplied by 20 = 3010 which is 31 per cent of 9710.

[400] IEA 2006b: 11.

[401] Renewable Energy Policy Project, 2003: 5.

[402] Grubb and Meyer 1994 and World Energy Council 1994.

[403] “Study of Offshore Wind Energy in the EC”, Garrad Hassan & Germanischer Lloyd, 1995, cited in European Wind Energy Association and Greenpeace undated.

[404] Hagerman 2001: 1

[405] World Energy Council 2001a; Fredriksson 2003: 4.

[406] World Energy Council. 1994.

[407] Thorpe 1999: 13.

[408] Thompson et al. 2001 or later: 6.

[409] Fredriksson 2003: 4.

[410] Ocean Power Delivery Ltd: http://www.oceanpd.com/default.html

[411] IEA 2006a: 18.

[412] Goldemberg 2000:155.

[413] This section draws for its information entirely on Goldemberg 2000: chapter 5.

[414] IEA 2006a: 24 and 6. The primary energy equivalent of nuclear electricity is calculated by assuming a 33.3 per cent conversion efficiency from heat to electricity. See IEA 2006a: 59.

[415] Italy imports from France electricity which is produced from nuclear power.

[416] http://www.uic.com.au/reactors.htm

[417] Hore-Lacy 2000.

[418] http://www.uic.com.au/reactors.htm. As well as commercial energy generation, there are about 280 small reactors, used for research and for producing isotopes for medicine and industry over 400 small reactors powering ships; mostly submarines. See Hore-Lacy 1999: v.

[419] NEA 2001: 15.

[420] http://www.uic.com.au/reactors.htm

[421] NEA 2001: 138.

[422] IEA 2001b: 130.

[423] Cohen 1990:163-164.

[424] http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf08.htm; Hoffman 2001.

[425] Hoffman 2001.

[426] Wardell 2001.

[427] Abraham 2002: 5; Wardell 2001.

[428] Grimston and Beck 2000: 29.

[429] UIC 2006a.

[430] 441 reactors currently produce 28.78 EJ. (687 Mtoe) of energy (Electricity/ 0.0333).

[431] NEA 2004: 13-22.

[432] http://www.uic.com.au/reactors.htm

[433] NEA 2004:.20.

[434] This was only $95 million in 2002, NEA 2004: 9.

[435] NEA 2004:20.

[436] Garwin and Charpak 2001: 166.

[437] NEA 2001: 30.

[438] UIC 2003.

[439] NEA 2004 22.

[440] NEA 2004: 22.

[441] NEA 2004: 22.

[442] NEA 2004: 22.

[443] NEA 2004: 22.

[444] http://users.rcn.com/jkimball.ma.ultranet/BiologyPages/E/
Elements.html

[445] Hore-lacy 1999: 39.

[446] This follows from fact that the current 6.5 per cent share requires 65,000 tonnes of uranium.

[447] Daley 1997: 60.

[448] Cohen 1990: 183.

[449] American Nuclear Society 2001: 7.

[450] Sims 1990: 40-41.

[451] Garwin and Charpak 2001: 85.

[452] Walker 2000: 48.

[453] IEA 2001b: 171.

[454] Cohen 1990: 114.

[455] van der Zwaan: 20.

[456] Hore-lacy 1999: 59.

[457] Cohen 1982: 73; Walker 2000: 141; Hodgson 1999: 64.

[458] Sims 1990: 85.

[459] Sims 1990: 85.

[460] Cohen 1990: 69.

[461] Rutherford 2002b.

[462] Rutherford 2002a: 19.

[463] GAO 2000: 10.

[464] Kaku and Trainer 1982: 29.

[465] Cohen 1998:525.

[466] Chernobyl Forum 2003-2005: 7.

[467] Hodgson 1999: 68.

[468] Hodgson 1999: 68.

[469] Oliver 2001.

[470] Kursunoglu 1998: 39.

[471] Hodgson 1999: 63-65.

[472] American Nuclear Society 2001: 7.

[473] Hodgson 1999: 65.

[474] Chen 2004.

[475] 300 millirems in the US.

[476] van der Zwaan. et al. 1999: 259; Cohen 1990: 205.

[477] Walker 2000: 52; Sims 1990: 40.

[478] Walker 2000: 31; Sims 1990: 40.

[479] Sims 1990: 243. Walker 2000: 117.

[480] Cohen 1990: 54.

[481] Walker 2000: 139.

[482] Walker 2000: 139.

[483] Sims 1990: 108.

[484] Garwin and Charpak 2001: 171-172.

[485] Hodgson 1999: 79.

[486] Kaku and Trainer 1982: 82-83.

[487] Nero 1982: 87-88.

[488] Cohen 1990: 86-89.

[489] Cohen 1990: 80.

[490] Cohen 1990: 86-89.

[491] Cohen 1990: 77.

[492] Cohen 1990: 86-89.

[493] UIC 2006b.

[494] http://www.uic.com.au/nip20.htm

[495] UIC 2006b.

[496] Hoffman 2001.

[497] Wardell 2001.

[498] IEA 2001b: 175.

[499] IEA 2001b: 197.

[500] Sims 1990: 175.

[501] Hore-Lacy 1999: 32.

[502] Sims 1990: 164.

[503] IEA 2001b: 197.

[504] Hore-Lacy 1999: 56.

[505] Holt 2003: CRS-5.

[506] IEA 2001b: 195.

[507] Hodgson 1999: 70-2.

[508] Holt 2003: CRS-6.

[509] Holt 2003: CRS-6.

[510] Hore-Lacy 1999: 46.

[511] IEA 2001b: 196.

[512] http://www.nrc.gov/waste/low-level-waste.html

[513] Cohen 1990: 206.

[514] IEA 2001b: 196.

[515] IEA 2001b: 51.

[516] Hodgson 1999: 73.

[517] http://www-ns.iaea.org/appraisals/west-kara.htm

[518] Cohen 1990: 179.

[519] Cohen 1990: 179.

[520] Cohen 1990: 179.

[521] Cohen 1990: 184.

[522] Cohen 1990: 184.

[523] Cohen 1990: 184.

[524] Hore-Lacy 1999: 48.

[525] Cohen 1990: 184.

[526] “Nuclear Energy Industry Salutes Senate for Approving Yucca Mountain.” PR Newswire July 9, 2002.

[527] Cohen 1990: 221.

[528] World Energy Council 2001b

[529] US Geological Survey, Geothermal Energy: Clean Power from the earth’s heat, Circular 1249, 2003, p. 17.

[530] World Energy Council 2001b.

[531] World Energy Council 2001b.

[532] Energy and Geoscience Institute University of Utah 2001 or later: 4.

[533] Energy and Geoscience Institute University of Utah 2001 or later: 6.

[534] US Geological Survey, Geothermal Energy: Clean Power from the earth’s heat, Circular 1249, 2003 p. 21.

[535] http://www1.eere.energy.gov/ba/pdfs/geo_hotdry_rock.pdf, page 3-40.

[536] Mock et al. 1997.

[537] Mock et al. 1997.

[538] Armstead and Tester 1987: 51-52.

[539] Armstead and Tester 1987: 56.

[540] The estimate takes into account the fact that hotter countries would have no use for low grade heat for space heating and would only be interested in rocks hot enough for electricity.

[541] Mock et al.1997 Table 1.

[542] Armstead and Tester 1987: 44.

[543] The 10 kilometers beneath each square kilometer provides 0.0215 quads for a 1oC drop in temperature and so 0.001075 quads for a 0.05oC drop. Dividing 445 by 0.001075 gives 413,953.

[544] Duchane 1996: 3.

[545] Duchane 1996: 4.

[546] This is using the USGS’s concept of reserve base which includes those resources that are currently economic (reserves), marginally economic, and some of those that are currently uneconomic. The uneconomic part would require some rise in prices or the adoption of some technology improvements. See USGS 2006: 195.

[547] Present iron ore and bauxite would last into the 2080s or 90s with an average annual growth rate of 2 per cent. This provide a 6.5 fold increase in annual consumption which would be more than enough to ensure abundance in a world of 10 billion people. Potash and phosphate, which are used in fertilizer, have present reserves that would last into the next century at that growth rate. However, it is likely that food abundance will not require such a large increase. See USGS 2006.

[548] Lomborg 2001: 140.

[549] Lomborg 2001: 141.

[550] Lomborg 2001: 142 and 145.

[551] USGS 2006: 129.

[552] USGS 2006: 125.

[553] USGS 2006: 183.

[554] http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/2005/econ-emissions.htm

[555] http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/sixpoll.html

[556] http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/pmreport03/pmlooktrends_2405.pdf.

[557] http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/2005/econ-emissions.html

[558] http://reports.eea.eu.int/topic_report_2003_4/en/
Topic_4_2003_web.pdf

[559] http://europa.eu/scadplus/leg/en/lvb/l28159.htm

[560] Depletion of oxygen in a nutrient-rich body of water by growth of too much plant life, leading to death of animal life.

[561] http://www.the-river-thames.co.uk/environ.htm

[562] International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine 2004.

[563] http://www.nyc.gov/html/dep/html/news/hwqs.html

[564] http://www.epa.gov/glnpo/glindicators/fishtoxics/topfisha.html

[565] http://www.epa.gov/glnpo/collaboration/taskforce/factsheet.html

[566] Lomborg 2001: 194.

[567] Lomborg 2001: 195.

[568] International Tanker Owners Pollution Federation, http://www.itopf.com/stats.html

[569] Beijing, March 12 (Xinhuanet

[570] Xinhua News Agency, October 19, 2004

[571] http://www.thewaterpage.com/ganges.htm#Pollution

[572] Xinhua News Agency, March 23, 2005

[573] http://www.chinaenvironment.net/sino/sino5/page12.html

[574] Xinhua News Agency, March 23, 2005

[575] http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTRES/Resources/
AirPollutionConcentrationData2.xls

[576] http://www.who.int/indoorair/en/

[577] This paragraph relies on Lomborg 2001: 191-192.

[578] http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/bat2/recovery.html

[579] Lomborg 2001: 180.

[580] According to FAO 1997: 21, “the widespread death of European forests due to air pollution which was predicted by many in the 1980’s did not occur.” Cited in Lomborg 2001:180.

[581] Lomborg 2001: 217.

[582] Lomborg 2001: 217.

[583] Edwards et al. 2005.

[584] American Cancer Society, Breast Cancer Facts and Figures 2005-2006 http://www.cancer.org/downloads/STT/CAFF2005BrF.pdf

[585] Lomborg 2001: 221.

[586] American Cancer Society, Breast Cancer Facts and Figures 2005-2006 http://www.cancer.org/downloads/STT/CAFF2005BrF.pdf

[587] Lomborg 2001: 225

[588] Lomborg p. 225 citing NCI statistics.

[589] Colborn, T. et al. 1996.

[590] Safe 1999: 193-194.

[591] Safe 1999: 193.

[592] Safe 1999: 191-192.

[593] Lomborg 2001: 238-241.

[594] Lomborg 2001: 240.

[595] Safe 2001: 198.

[596] Lomborg 2001: 241.

[597] FAO 2005: 137.

[598] FAO 2005: table 3.

[599] Depletion figures derived from FAO 2006: table 4.

[600] Hollander 2003: 128.

[601] FAO 2006: table 4.

[602] http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/003/X6953E/X6953E05.htm

[603] Martin 1999: 207 suggests a range of 5-10 million current species, with a greater likelihood of being closer to 5 than 10. Here is another view: “For the more conspicuous birds and mammals, the number of species is known quite accurately, both for tropical species as well as temperate ones. It is estimated that at least 98 per cent of birds have been discovered. For birds there are 2-3 times as many tropical species as temperate ones. For other organisms most of the named species (1.4 million) are from temperate countries. If we assume that the same factor applies to other organisms as to birds, then there are 2-3 times this many tropical species (2.8-4.2 million, giving an estimated total species of 4.2-5.6 million.” http://darwin.bio.uci.edu/~sustain/bio65/lec10/b65lec10.htm#_Number_of_Species

[604] Lomborg 2001: 250.

[605] Lomborg 2001: 252.

[606] Conservation International, Biodiversity Hotspots, Atlantic Forest: http://www.biodiversityhotspots.org/xp/Hotspots/atlantic_forest/conservation.xml

[607] Lomborg 2001: 254.

[608] Easterbrook 1995: 559.

[609] Martin 1999: 208-210.

[610] Simons 1996: 446 citing Reid and Miller 1989.

[611] Lomborg 2001: 250 gives a figure of 4,500 mammals and 9,500 birds; 1/14,000 multiplied by 10 million equals 714.

[612] Reporting on the work of UC Berkeley geologist James Kirchner, http://www.rainforests.net/diversification.htm

[613] Lomborg 2001: 249.

[614] Ayittey 1992: 105)

[615] Ayittey 1992: 112

[616] Betrayed 0023 252

[617] Ayittey 1998: 144-145

[618] Ayittey 1992: 342

[619] Ayodele 2005: 2.

[620] Ayodele 2005: 1.

[621] Ayittey 1992: 255

[622] Ayittey 1992: 245

[623] Ayodele 2005: 3.

[624] Ayittey 1992: 239

[625] Ayyittey 2002: 9.

[626] Hope and Chikulo 1999: 122.

[627] Ayittey 1992: 0019.

[628] Ayittey 1998: 177.

[629] Ayittey 1992: 0015.

[630] Ayittey 1992: 0024.

[631] “Sub-Saharan Africa Survey” The Economist Jan 15th 2004.

[632] Ayittey 1992: 0031.

[633] “Sub-Saharan Africa Survey” The Economist Jan 15th 2004.

[634] “Sub-Saharan Africa Survey” The Economist Jan 15th 2004.

[635] Ayittey 2002: 10.

[636] The Economist, 20 Oct 2005

[637] The total foreign debt of SSA governments today stands at $350 billion. (Ayittey2004:2) and of this about half is owed by the 34 Sub-Saharan countries described as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries, the real basket cases. (Cato Institute 2005: 698) The vast bulk of the debt is owed to Western governments and multi-lateral financial and development institutions such as the World Bank, the IMF and the UNDP. Currently debt service obligations absorb a large proportion of export revenue.

[638] These include Bono and Bob Geldoff.

[639] http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d04/tables/dt04_008.asp

[640] http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d04/tables/dt04_185.asp

[641] National Center for Education Statistics 2005:161

[642] http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d04/tables/dt04_362.asp

[643] http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ocwage.t01.htm

[644] http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/32/26/33710913.xls

[645] This is called the Flynn Effect. See http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/13.05/flynn_pr.html

[646] It is, of course, problematic to talk about socialism having employment, full or otherwise, given that workers are now owners rather than employees. It is used here as a matter of convenience given the difficulty of coming up with a more suitable word.

[647] In the mathematics of game theory, this is an example of the so-called prisoner’s dilemma problem where the ‘rules of the game’ are such that each individual player is forced to adopt a non-cooperative strategy that delivers to them an outcome that is inferior to the one they would receive in a ‘game’ that enforced a cooperative strategy.

[648] At the other end of the spectrum, people with abilities in high demand will get what is effectively a negative subsidy. Organizations will bid a “shadow” wage for the labor based on the value they place on it. However, the worker should only receive what is required to induce him or her into that position. Economist refer to the difference as a rent which can be taxed without affecting economic decisions.

[649] http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ocwage.t01.htm

[650] Miller et al. 1996.

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